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Friday: Which precincts in rural Alaska went heavily for Trump?
Hoonah and Gambell? The list might surprise you. Also, where are we with voter turnout in Alaska?
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Question of the week
In 2022, the Division of Elections didn’t release all the information from ballots right away, only releasing the “first choices” of the final four. There is no law preventing the Division from showing all the second and third choices at the same time, which would allow citizens to have a better idea about who was the actual winner before the 15-day delay.
Our question of the week is:
Turnout stats - what we know so far
In 2016, a presidential election year, 321,271 voted in Alaska out of 528,671 registered voters. That was 60.77% .
The non-presidential year of 2018 saw 285,009 Alaskans vote out of 571,851 registered voters — 50%.
In 2020, another presidential year, turnout was 359,530 out of 597,319 — 60%.
In 2022 turnout was somewhat lower, with 267,047 Alaskans voting out of 602,420 — 44%.
So far in 2024, votes counted total 257,388 of the 611,940 registered voters — 42.12%
We are, at this point in the 2024 counting, 102,142 votes short of 2020’s turnout.
Caveat: This is all distorted by the fact that there are tens of thousands of more voters on the rolls than there were in 2016, thanks to the PFD automatic registration program.
Alaska’s population in 2016 was 742,575.
Alaska’s population in 2024 is 9,000 less — 733,536 —and yet our voter rolls show 83,269 more voters than in 2016.
Stay with me here: With all that, we can’t compare apples to apples, because the PFD registration logs in people who have no intention of voting. There are 190,000 people who have not voted in the last four elections. This is a huge chunk of deadbeat voters who are there because they annually apply for a PFD. But a few of them showed up this year to vote, according to the stats.
Another fun stat: Alaska had 73,000 people who voted early in 2024 — the highest in history if you take out the 2020 Covid distortion.
At this writing, there may be 30,000 votes to be counted — that’s how many early voted in the window from Oct. 31 until Monday, Nov. 4, when ballots are held to make sure people are not voting twice. And there are a few mailed-in ballots that have met the Nov. 5 postage cancellation deadline.
Check with Must Read Alaska online for updates later today, where we’ll attempt to dial in the number of remaining ballots.
Division of Elections struggles to get precincts to report from rural Alaska
This raises the question — if these rural precincts will not respond to the Division of Elections, why isn’t the Department of Justice interested in that, instead of making sure there is a translator at the door for five people?
Status quo: Alaska Senate, with mostly same members, to keep bipartisan coalition
The Senate is no better off than it was last go-round. The Senate needs a good purge.
Return of the Muskox Caucus: Edgmon takes control of House?
House is essentially in the middle of a big flip to Democrat and fake-independent control.
It’s not over, folks.
Race we are still watching — District 18
Will Republican David Nelson unseat Rep. Cliff Groh? It comes down to absentees. Anything within 1/2 percent will be a recount automatically. Here’s where it stands — a 1% difference of 28 votes:
28 votes might be made up by absentee ballots still not counted in the contest between Democrat Groh and Republican Nelson.
Race we are fascinated by — District 27
211 votes is harder for Rep. David Eastman to make up in the absentees as he fends off a challenge from fellow Republican Jubilee Underwood. This is a 3.4% difference, so no automatic recount is likely.
Ballot Measure 1 is done — minimum wage goes up
Ballot Measure 2 - Ranked-Choice Voting repeal is passing by a hair
The difference is 4,122 votes, with perhaps 30,000 votes to be counted. If Ballot Measure 2 passes, it will be one of the biggest voter repudiations of liberal billionaire Dark Money of the century. That’s still a big “if,” with a 1.3% difference.
What is amazing is that ranked-choice voting passed in 2020 by nearly the same margin — 50.55% to 49.45%.
Who wore it better? Anchorage Assemblywoman dresses like fictional ‘Handmaid’s Tale’ concubine for official city meeting
The sexual fetish costume of the mentally ill feminists was on full display for Anchorage to see — this is what you elected, Anchorage: Drama queen, attention-seeking narcissists on the Assembly. Who can take this woman seriously now?
What did Alaska’s D.C. delegation say about Trump’s historic win?
Sullivan was enthusiastic, but it took Murkowski a while to get done throwing up in her mouth before she could form a sentence or two.
Hot takes: Alaska’s winners and losers
Is Begich congressman-elect? A look at the numbers
At this point, it is getting hard for Peltola to find a path.
Video: Could Dunleavy become Interior Secretary?
He’s in the running, but so is the North Dakota governor.
Gavin Newsom is leader ‘of the resistance’
“Even as Donald Trump’s victory represents a devastating loss for Democrats, it carries a political silver lining for California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is now positioned to become the leader of the Democratic resistance.” - San Francisco Chronicle
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Quote of the day
“Hey was that an election or what? I haven't seen a man beat a woman that bad since the Olympics.” - Must Read Alaska Fairbanks reader
Chris Constant throwback machine
This day in history
November 8, 195, the Alaska Constitutional Convention convened on the campus of the University of Alaska Fairbanks.
Columns
Win Gruening: Let’s consider tightening cell phone restrictions in schools
We didn’t really need a study to tell us what is obvious — the cell phones are destroying learning and socializing.
Rick Whitbeck: Biden extends middle finger to Alaska over ANWR leases on his way out the door
We’re going to get more of this as he shuffles out the door.
Marc Bond: The meaning of the 2024 election
Really good analysis by a voice we would like to hear more of.
Alaska oil: $74.71
Henry Hub gas: $2.67
Alaska North Slope Production: 470,987
Permanent Fund (principal and earnings reserve): $80,982,700,000
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